Recognizing if you are asking an inferencial question or prediction question is critical to choosing a model Oand algorithm. Let’s build awareness of the difference.

Inference

  • Association between response and key variables while adjusting for confounders/interactions.
    • Normally there are few variables that highly impact the response (think pareto law).
    • Estimate association of variables to response is key for modeling
    • Sensiviity analysis can check assoication.

Prediction

  • Develop a model that best predicts response
  • Use all available information, not just few key variables (no variable is favored)
  • Not much focus on variables assoication with outcome
  • Just want to find a model form with high accuracy and low error.

Another angle on this when doing data analysis, let’s imagine a “data generating process”, and inference refer to learning about the structure of this process from the data. But prediction means being able to actually forecast the data that come from the process. They can go hand in hand.

Here is an example: Let’s say you want to estimate the rate of increase in house value based on square footage. This is estimating how square footage is assoicated with house value. This is inference. Now prediction would be calculating house value based on many variables (# of bedrooms, # of baths, square footage, etc).

Caution – There are types of models where one is able to make sensible predictions, but the model doesn’t lead to useful insights (e.g. black box). Sophicasted ensembling models can lead to good predictions but are hard to explain or understand. The opposite models are like linear regression, where you know if one variable increasing by certain amount it directly changes the estimation of response or outcome (e.g. house value).

 

 

 

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  479. Robust, padded parka in G-1000 Silent Eco. Storm hood, clip-on radio attachment and practical pockets, including an ammunition pocket. 633 – Dark Olive.

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  483. Buy your men’s cap or hat from Fjallraven – The Swedish brand and the home of the iconic Kånken. Shade hats, the Singi cap, trapper hats are just some of our …

  484. Buy a men’s parka from Fjällräven. Our parkas are classic in style and will keep you warm during the cold winter months. Shop online at Fjallraven UK shop.

  485. Buy your men’s cap or hat from Fjallraven – The Swedish brand and the home of the iconic Kånken. Shade hats, the Singi cap, trapper hats are just some of our …

  486. Shop your women’s Fjallraven parkas from our webshop. Here you’ll find popular models like the iconic Greenland parka or warm, winter parkas.

  487. Everyday/Outdoor jackets · Trekking jackets · Down jackets · Shell jackets · Anoraks · Parkas · Hunting jackets · Spring jackets · Summer jackets · Autumn jackets …

  488. Large winter parka with synthetic lining that effectively keeps out the wind, rain and winter temperatures. Many practical pockets, a detachable fleece-lined hood …

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  490. Product features. Long down filled parka. Fixed adjustable storm hood with fleece lining inside collar, for comfort and protection. Two-way front zipper. 2 bottom …

  491. Long parkas with synthetic or down padding, or try our classical model with G-1000 and teddy-pile lining. Available in both wind and waterproof models from …

  492. At Fjällräven you’ll find a range of men’s winter jackets made from durable, water-resistant and ventilating materials to keep you warm and dry during the winter …

  493. Product features. Light and warm ribbed knitted hat in lamb wool. Folded edge at the bottom. Small logo in leather. Show full description.

  494. Everyday/Outdoor jackets · Down jackets · Shell jackets · Anoraks · Parkas · Spring jackets · Summer jackets · Autumn jackets · Winter jackets · Outdoor clothes …

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  497. Robust, padded parka in G-1000 Silent Eco. Storm hood, clip-on radio attachment and practical pockets, including an ammunition pocket. 633 – Dark Olive.

  498. At Fjällräven you’ll find a range of men’s winter jackets made from durable, water-resistant and ventilating materials to keep you warm and dry during the winter …

  499. Product features. Long down filled parka. Fixed adjustable storm hood with fleece lining inside collar, for comfort and protection. Two-way front zipper. 2 bottom …

  500. Get your women’s winter coat from Fjallraven webshop. We have a wide range of winter jacket models like the Raven Winter Jacket, padded parkas, down …

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